It was eight weeks in the past when the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him for missing a through-ball. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, in contrast, the touchline reaction proved to be far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery tore off his coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win any of their first six games, find themselves a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
It remains a rather hard proposition to resolve. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the victories have accumulated.
Per the data, in only two games has the team posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club which has put together 10 in a row, Villa seem curiously susceptible – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This was the case against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again against Manchester United.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the post from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players might still return to peak condition.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended leading the celebrations, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
A tech enthusiast and digital strategist with over a decade of experience in emerging technologies and innovation consulting.