Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It frequently acts as a form of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign predictions.
Theoretically, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.
However the latest field is profoundly different. The pool of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and recent underperformers rising together. Under an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against five other exceptional candidates.
Here is how the hypothetical ballot could shake out.
Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're halfway home.
The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.
Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.
During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical year!
The area where his candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But he falls just short here.
Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.
What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.
Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.
After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.
The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.
Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.
Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of other QBs.
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